Once again, I’m watching the latest Democratic Town Hall with Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, while also keeping an eye out on the Republican Caucuses in Nevada. I’m not sure there will be anything to really report on, or even summarize, when the night’s over, but it won’t be from lack of watching.
One thing I do want to note is something I’ve noticed over the last few days in regards to everyone’s favorite Oompa Loompa, Donald Trump. I have noticed a marked change in his rhetoric lately that I find quite telling about his future political plans. Although he is still Trump, and he is still making… flamboyant statements, he’s become a bit less confrontational during interviews. And he doesn’t seem to be attacking people as vehemently as he has even just last week. He seems to be trying to pivot and appeal to more than his base, but I’m not too sure it’s going to work. Now, since he first announced his candidacy, I’ve maintained that he had a ceiling of about 30% nationally. And in nearly every nationwide poll, it seems he hits that ceiling to a tee.With all the other candidates that have dropped out, you would think the front runner would pick up some percentage of those votes, yet it doesn’t appear that Trump has, and that’s telling. Now, we’ll see what happens tonight, since this is the first GOP contest where there is clearly only three real contestants left. Maybe, this time for the first time, Trump will do better than his polls suggest, but I don’t think so. Currently, his average on RealClearPolitics stands at around 37% of the vote in Nevada and I think he’ll underperform. If he does underperform, that means that as the field of candidates shrinks Trump is losing votes to the other candidates, instead of gaining votes. Yes, he’s still the obvious GOP leader and yes, if anyone other than Trump was winning by such wide margins they would have probably been anointed the GOP nominee. However, if he really does have a ceiling, if he really cannot get more than 30% of the nationwide GOP vote, then I don’t think he can win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency.