I’ve said this since November 2016, but I want to codify it here for posterity’s sake.

Donald Trump will not be impeached unless and until his approval ratings fall below 40% for two consecutive polling terms. Once that happens, then and only then, will Republican Senators feel ‘safe’ enough in opposing Trump that they will denounce him. Once the Republicans begin opposing Trump, whispers of impeachment will grow loud enough to be considered a reality, and that’s when I expect Trump to resign in disgrace.

Well, if he’s smarter than a five-year-old he’ll resign.

But none of that, none of it, can happen until Trump’s constituents are personally and demonstrably affected by something he does that cannot be pushed off onto someone else. I believe this because people are loath to admit when they are wrong during the best of times and for the smallest of reasons. How much more resistant do you think foolish people can be when it comes to the fool they voted into the highest office of the land? People hate looking foolish when they’ve been fooled, but I hope they learn to hate the fool who fooled them more than their own foolishness.

Personally, I believe this will all happen sooner, rather than later.

In November, when Trump became President-Elect, I predicted that by end of summer 2017 enough of his constituents would turn on him to bring his approval ratings under 40%. Based on what’s been happening lately, I wholeheartedly stand by that prediction. The only problem I have is figuring out whether Pence or Ryan become the new President. As it stands, I think the odds are 50-50.

And that scares me. A lot.